Brenda Cooper

Brenda’s work as a Futurist

We are living in a time of great change, a time when we are surrounded by unexpected and generous opportunity, and also by danger.  This is an important time to talk amongst ourselves so that we can share, see, and understand the promise and peril of our times.  And even more importantly, so that we can create a future full of health, opportunity, and options.

Really, that’s the basic reason I’m a futurist.

Here’s what I do about it:

Obviously, first and foremost, I’m a science fiction writer.  Yes, that is a futurist task – not for every story or even every book, but often.  Many of our true visionaries have been science fiction writers.  Ursula LeGuin.  Jules Verne. George Orwell.  Ray Bradbury.  David Brin.  Arthur C. Clark.  I could expand this list easily.   Yes, I want to be as good as they are!  I write fiction almost every day, and I’m up to forty or fifty published stories and six novels.  One of my favorite places to write for is Nature Magazine.  They publish short shorts on the last page of the magazine.  Here are links to my stories there:

I’ve been talking with, learning from, and writing for noted futurist Glen Hiemstra for over a decade.  I admire Glen because he is both positive and realistic.  Consider dropping by Futurist.com to learn more about Glen’s work.

I’m a member of the Futurist Board at the LifeBoat Foundation, which seeks to assure that we survive as a species.  It is a wild and crazy place full of brilliant people.  I won’t pretend to agree with them all for even a moment, but I’m often learning by association.

There are a number of ways I work to contribute to the public dialogue about the future.  I  keynote business events and talk to schools.  I only do a few talks a year, solely because of time, although I can regularly be found at science fiction conventions talking about the future on panels.  Some of my next appearances will be at the World Science Fiction Convention in Texas and at Orycon in Orgeon.  The next place you can catch me giving a solo talk about the future in a public forum will be at the World Future Society meeting in Chicago in the summer of 2013.

If you’d like to find out if I’m available for a specific event, please use the contact form.

Lastly, I am a technology professional.  That is also a tangentially futurist profession.  I work for the City of Kirkland as the CIO, which means that I spend some time looking forward at how technology can help citizens.


Recent Posts on Futurism

Apr
15

Travel Recommendation: World Future 2014 “What if?”

I often do book recommendations.  Seemed like time for a bit of a travel recommendation. This one is especially for science fiction writers and fans.  The World Future Society’s annual meeting this year is themed “What if?” – a core question for science fiction fans, and certainly the starting question for many science fiction books and stories.

wdslogoI’ve been helping them some with organizing the a science fiction symposium within the convention, and the speakers are fabulous.

  • Glen Hiemstra has been my futurist mentor from Futurist.com, and in a life a long time ago, I was his first webmaster.  He’s one of the best futurist keynoters I know; thoughtful and thought-provoking both.
  • I’ve recommended Ramez Naam for his fiction books Nexus and Crux and for his non-fiction The Infinite Resource:  The power of ideas on a finite planet.  Mez is a crack speaker, and doing a lot of international travel to talk to global audiences.  He’s also local to me, and one of our fastest-rising stars in Seattle.
  • Madeline Ashby is also one of our new, fresh voices in science fiction and a fellow futurist. Read my interview with Madeline as a 2012 guest post for SF Signal.  I really enjoyed her books, iD and vN.
  • One of my oldest and best friends from Florida introduced me to Brad Aiken, a doctor who writes science fiction about the future of medicine.  We were both part of a group dinner in San Antonia last Worldcon, and I found him smart and well-spoken, and very, very knowledgeable.
  • I’m looking forward to meeting Trevor Haldenby, an exciting futurist who is using science fictions storytelling in his scenarios.  I haven’t seen him work, but I’ve heard from others who have, and I think he’s going to be great.
  • In case that’s not enough, we’ll also be joined by techno-philosopher Gray Scott,  by volcano surfer Zoltan Istvan, and by the outgoing CIO of the World Future Society, Timothy Mack.  And more.

In addition to the symposium, many of us will also be speaking in the other tracks of the conference.  I’ll be there talking about my Backing into Eden concept blog, with a particular focus on ethics and GM animals.

So what happens when a techno-philospher, a volcano surfer, and a CIO walk into a bar…come to the World Future Society Science Fiction Symposium and you might just find out.

wf2014_logo_rgb_for_webThe conference is in Orlando in July, and registration is open.  There’s even a discount if you sign up by the end of April.  Join me for some of the best conversations of the year.

Apr
11

Backing into Eden Chapter 19: Earth

I live in Washington State, and all the news for the last two weeks has been the unthinkable Oso mudslide.  Slides are not unusual here, although I have never heard of one with this much destructive force.  It got me reflecting about the relationship between earth and water.

The desert near my parent’s home in Mesa, Arizona can do well with very little water while parched farmland turns into a spiderweb of empty cracks with the same amount of rainfall. 

As the climate changes, soil changes. When the balance transforms dramatically, we can get flood or drought, and the soil – described by the World Wildlife foundation as, “the fragile skin of the Earth,” can change consistency or place and richness. It can become incapable of sustaining the same life that it was once in balance with.

Soil is complex.  It’s made of eroded rocks, silt, sand, dead plants, living organisms, water and air.  Soil composition varies from place to place, but always the basic elements are in a dance and the points of balance matter.

This series is about gardening the Earth, and if there is anything gardeners know, it’s to tend to the soil.

Plant in dried cracked mudThe US Department of Natural Resources suggests that we change our way of thinking, and begin to treat soil as an organism, that we imagine it as something that can experience health and disease, as something that can be nurtured.  Something living.  This is directly in line with the concept of humans as caretakers of the environment.  So let’s explore some ways to do that:

  • Early in this blog series, I discussed frameworks for land use and held up the Forterra NGO in Washington state as an example.  Forterra works to create large connected ecosystems where natural processes can maintain health.  One of their tools is land-swaps, which allows for aggregation and protection of wild lands.
  • One lesson form the Oso landslide is that data can help.  We had LiDar and ortho-photography of the hillside that came down on Oso, but not much of it was transparent to the people living in the way of the slide.  Had that information been easily available, it’s possible some people would have made different decisions.
  • We knew the hillside was dangerous, but there were no tools to keep people from living there:  almost no local government can afford to seriously challenge property rights.  The laws are on the side of the people who want to do whatever they like on their land whether or not it makes sense for safety, ecology, or the greater good.  Short of limited eminent domain, local governments lack tools. This is where NGO’s like Forterra can develop and use methods to both aggregate land and leave the original landowner in an acceptable or even improved situation.
  • Many farming and urban gardening practices damage soils. There are social movements and business drivers working to recognize and correct this problem; these should be supported and expanded.  Urban farmers can use natural fertilizers and pest management, even if they are harder and slightly less effective.  It’s important to create healthy organic soils in gardens of all sizes.
  • Organic growing methods produce food that is better for us and better for soil health.
  • Overgrazing does damage, but managed grazing is actually good for soil.  Traditional farmers are beginning to use better grazing techniques, and some entire ecosystems are being restored with the use of wild grazing herds.
  • There are more dramatic possible solutions.  Thanks to our household seventeen year old, I found an article by Alexandra Daisy Ginsberg (linked below) that contemplates a synthetic creature – a designed biological entity – that heals soils.  We may not want manufactured life in our yards, but there are a lot of seriously contaminated places where futuristic synthetic biology might be very useful.

Soil- handful,female hands, humus soil

  • Healthy soil is a carbon sink.  There are estimates that soil has lost more than 50% of its carbon, releasing most of it into the air as CO2.  But healthy ground is partly made of decaying plants. As a double-win, healthier soil grows more food and keeps carbon out of the atmosphere.

Soil is critical.  So is learning more about the world we walk on.  Doing research for this blog series and general research on fracking, I’ve learned that there are living organisms far below the surface, some as far as two miles below the surface. We know almost nothing about these organisms, but to me they seem to be yet more proof of the tenacity of life.  Perhaps they are the type of life that we will find on Mars some day, or even living on the moon.  Perhaps they perform functions we need in order to have the right balance in the soil on the slopes above our houses.
Climate change management is about the air that we breathe, but it’s also about water and land, about the soil on which we walk and on which we depend for food. It’s about the earth we live on, and the land that we don’t want to have thundering down onto our heads and turning our houses to splinters.

Links:

WWF Threats:  Soil Erosion and Degradation

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service: Soils

Latest Aerial Imagery of the Oso Landslide, Seattle Times, April 1, 2014

Ecologists turn to planned grazing to revive grassland soil: the Salt: NPR, August 5th, 2013, by Luke Runyon

Soil as Carbon Storehouse:  New weapon in Climate Fight?, Yale Environment 360, March 2014, by Judith D. Schwartz

Forterra

Designing for the sixth extinction, Project 2013, by Alexandra Daily Ginsberg

Learning from my soil: the 2014 garden dialogue, Resilience, February 25th, 2014, by Claire Schosser

What lies beneath: Tiny organism thrive below Earth’s surface, Livescience, December 29, 2013, by Tia Ghose

Mar
24

Backing into Eden Chapter 18: The Element of Air

Every year, we science fiction fans are given the opportunity to vote on a host city for a future World Science Fiction convention.  This year, the vote will be between Kansas City and Shanghai.   I’m certain that I’ll be voting for Kansas City.  I’d LOVE to see the Great Wall, but I’ve seen pictures of the air in China lately, and my instincts suggest I may not want to take the health risks associated with a visit.  I’ve read that some of China’s elite are leaving for health reasons.  China is also beginning to have a hard time convincing people from western countries to work there.  Other places have even worse air.  A recent Guardian article wonders if Kathmandu is actually “unlivable” because of poor air quality.   India is only ranked slightly ahead of Kathmandu at 174th out of 178, based on the Yale Environmental Performance Index.  There are plenty of other pain points in air quality:

  • It’s only March, and carbon dioxide levels have already exceeded 400 PPM this year, a number that wasn’t crossed until May in 2013.  The “safe” levels are below that number, and many think they are below 350 PPM or even lower than that.  What’s at risk?  According to many, life as we know it.
  • Depending on which source you focus on, air pollution is estimated to kill between two and four million people a year right now.  This isn’t a future climate-change scenario.  It’s happening now.  Slow, painful, and early death doesn’t get the press of dramatic death, but it’s just as real.
  • A recent article suggested that the pollution in China is so bad that it impedes photosynthesis (and thus the uptake of carbon dioxide and creation of oxygen).  Severe pollution is yet another scary feedback mechanism, where the damage we’re doing increases the damage (like open ocean in the arctic absorbed more heat and creates more open ocean in the arctic).

There’s more, but that’s enough bad news to convince almost anyone that as much as we need to pay attention to water, we also need to focus on air.

Exhaust smoke and air pollutionThe elephant in the room is the collection of pollution that is damaging the atmosphere and leading to climate change. Carbon is the most talked about part of this elephant.  Programs to reduce carbon in the atmosphere are being developed and implemented in many places, but the amount of carbon is still rising dangerously.

The problem is complex, but nonetheless there are three primary sources of air pollution.  These are fossil fuel use (from coal plants to gasoline cars), deforestation, and the release of methane.  If we focus on those three items, we can make a significant difference.

We can directly affect the amount of carbon released by personal transportation. “Alternative transportation” includes walking, bicycles, electric cars, subways, trains, shared cars, bus rapid transit, and more.   Most have a carbon cost, but they are all better choices than gas-powered cars with single occupancy drivers.

For the coal plants, we need regulation with teeth, and to capture that carbon at the source.  There is technology for that now, and we should be using it.  MIT keeps a page with a list carbon capture projects worldwide, and it appears that there is a lot more planning than implementation happening at the moment.   Mostly, we need to move away from coal, but to do that while maintaining a healthy economy we may need to spend a few decades in ‘capture and sequester’ phase.

Deforestation has a lot of causes.  One simple way to look at it is deforestation is a result of the inability to express and move value around.  The value to the world of a plot of healthy rainforest is far greater than corporation or individual farmers get from the land after they burn the forest off.  But we don’t have any way to recognize that.  Even though some programs are trying to do just that, in general the hungry farmer can’t use conservation to feed his or her family.  This is changeable.

We’re back to another root I’m seeing.  Cattle.  Cattle-ranching drives a lot of the deforestation.  Eating beef, of course, drives cattle-ranching.  The vast water-cost of feeding cows came up in last week’s blog about water, and cattle come up again in this blog under the topic of methane.  I didn’t set out to write about becoming vegetarian,  but it’s beginning to look important.  More on that topic in a future whole chapter.

Deforestation fills the atmosphere with black carbon, or soot.  In addition to deforestation, soot is released from diesel engines, from fires (including household fireplaces and cooking fires), and from some industrial processes.  Soot absorbs solar radiation, and interacts in complex ways with forces for both warming and cooling.  Scientific sentiment is beginning to suggest that reduction in soot worldwide may slow global warming significantly.

In the United States, we are reducing black carbon emissions through more controls on diesel fuels and other methods.  Since soot is not as persistent in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, reductions in the release of soot can have a fairly quick payoff.

Methane is another abundant greenhouse gas.  There are a number of natural reasons for this, but there are also anthropogenic causes.  Coal and coal plants and even natural gas production, transportation, and use release methane.  And for a nearly comical source of even more methane?  Cows. One more reason we should seriously consider shifting our sources of protein.

Air pollution comes from a lot of sources, and the intricacies of our atmosphere are not completely understood yet.  I suspect that before we made the air dirty enough to see after the industrial revolution, humanity simply took it from granted that air was free and clean.  We need to both act now on the things we do understand (it can be done; California’s air is far cleaner than it used to be) and to do a lot more basic research.

We breathe each other’s air.  The wind mixes our air together and blows it across political boundaries.  Chinese air affects the United States, and our air affects China.  Even more than water, the same air flows across all of us, and it is up to all of us to work together to clean it up and keep it clean.  Think of it as housekeeping 101.

As always, here are a few links to follow if you are interested in diving any deeper:

 

Mar
22

Glass: Three Month Review

It seemed like I should give people a bit of an update about Google Glass, and what the experience of being a Glass Explorer has been like for me.

First, I’ve met a number of really great people through Glass.  I spent the first month basically wandering alone and not seeing anyone else wearing Glass at all.  Then I hooked up with Seattle Glass Explorers Artists and Developers Incubator, which meets every Friday afternoon.  Because I have a day job, I can’t be there every Friday, but I’ve been there a few times, and met the core people from the incubator at a few other functions.   They are really very smart and kind people.  At any rate, I have some new friends and some new things to learn.  These are both things I  find energizing.

Second, I’ve learned that people’s reactions to Glass vary along a bell curve.  The most common reaction, and the middle of the curve, is mild curiosity.  For most people, Glass is just not that big a deal. They’re curious, will ask a few questions, and then the conversation moves on.

The curiosity side fades to fascination.  Some people are really interested in Glass.   Glass Explorers, futurists, and science fiction writers, entrepreneurs, young people in technology, and a few random others who find Glass interesting.  These people want to try it on,  to understand it, and in some cases are actively interested in using Glass for good.  Think applications that make the world a better place or simply make things easier.  After all, hands-free computing is awesome.  Good for inspectors, dog trainers, health care workers, house cleaners…the list goes on.

On the other hand, the disinterest side of the bell curve fades to fear, which I find is almost always based on misunderstanding.  There are people who are convinced that Glass is always on and always recording, and always being watched by some evil human being at Google.  None of the above are true.  In most cases, I’ve found people are willing to learn and to often change their attitude about Glass when they understand it better.  Generally, this group of people does not come from the tech community, but a few times I’ve been surprised by conspiracy-theory level worries from people who really aught to know better, like DBA’s and other people with college degrees.

Best thing about Glass today? It’s lovely to be able to do some basic computing without needing my hands for much of it (Glass is not entirely hands free).  Next best?  The potential is amazing.

biopic glass hat Chad EmersonThere is a certain awkwardness to Glass in many situations.  Sometimes I don’t use it for days.  I usually like wearing it, and I wish I had more time to learn more about it and try out more applications.  Some of this awkwardness comes from the fact that Glass is still an expensive limited edition, some comes from the very idea of wearing a camera on your face (or anything electronic on your face), and some is that the user interface is still rough around the edges in spite of really good apps like the turn by turn directions.

The current conversation about Glass is really waiting for a clear sign from Google about next steps.  For example, most development is small stuff since VC funding is hard to go after for a product with no release date, no cost, and no clearly communicated direction.  In the meantime, I’m still out here exploring Glass and enjoying the process.

 

…picture credit Chad Emerson

Mar
09

Backing into Eden, Chapter 17: A Fundamental Challenge

So far in this blog series, I’ve talked about the management of things that live in places that can be located on the globe.  Species, like elephants and mud snails.  Ecosystems, like rain forests or coral reefs.  On a smaller level, microclimates.

These all matter very much.  But there are even bigger challenges that have no specific home but affect every place.  Air is one of them, and frankly most of climate change comes down to managing the air badly.

There is another critical element.

What do we need second only to air? What lives everywhere and takes multiple forms?  What must be cleaned and acts as a cleaner? What is a habitat and is needed by all habitats? What carves the deepest canyons in the world? What does every living being, in every place on the globe need?

Water.

I live in the Pacific Northwest of America, a place rich with water.  I’ve been on my bike almost every weekend so far this year, and mostly that means I’ve been rained on, almost rained on, or on one particularly cold ride, rained on, snowed on, and sleeted on.

When I think about the future, I often worry about water.  Some future problems will be the same ones I’ve been experiencing on my bike:  too much water.  But primarily they will be problems of scarcity.

20071112-iStock_000010035451MediumI’ll start with one specific example I found in my research.  Generally, I think of rivers as something we use for irrigation.  Last year, we irrigated the Rio Grande river.  Instead of using the river, we fed it.

That is not the usual relationship between humans and rivers.

I’ll mention three freshwater problems as a reminder of the scale of the issues:

1.     Glaciers are melting. This is causing the sea level to rise, and also reducing the amount of fresh water available in some places.

2.     Plant in dried cracked mudClimate change has been linked to drought, which has been widespread lately.  This year, Californians have lived in fear that water shortages will leave farmland fallow and may even leave some communities without any water at all. None.

3.     Aquifers are being quickly depleted, making water harder to reach via wells and also causing the ground to subside, saltwater to intrude, and water quality to decline.

There are far more problems related to water than this, but lets move on to solution.  Water conservation does matter.  The needle is moving the right direction:  per capita water use is dropping in the United States.  This is because of a combination of education, infrastructure upgrades (removing leaks from water systems), new technology (less wasteful toilets and shower heads etc.), and regulation.  We need to do more, and I’m sure we can and will.  But as bright a spot as conservation has turned out to be, it won’t help when a drought or the depletion of groundwater means there’s no water to conserve.

So we’re going to have to exert a bit more control on the water picture.  Here are a few things we’ll be doing in the future:

·      For coastal cities, there’s a reasonable obvious solution:  desalination.  It’s terribly expensive today.  But we know how to address that.  Investment in solar power has driven the cost down by roughly 60% in the last three years.  Desalination technology hasn’t enjoyed as much investment, but that could change rapidly as California contemplates building new plants.  As expensive as desalinization is, trucking water from other places could be far more expensive given the dense population.

·      There are places in the world where water is available but contaminated.  Some very interesting work has been happening to create ways to clean this water.  From a LifeStraw to new hydro-packs, there are innovative tools coming online for families to carry and clean water more easily.  These tools could also be used to carry water and clean water enough to grow healthy food.

·      It takes far more water to grow and harvest a steak than a salad.  A simple change in human diet to reduce animal protein by half would drastically reduce the amount of water needed to feed the world.  While this is a simple conservation measure, it’s not yet occurring at scale.  For example, a major crop in California is alfalfa, itself a thirsty grass.  California’s alfalfa is largely sold to China, effectively exporting the product of scarce water offshore.

·      Water rights laws are often old and inadequate or even damaging to current needs.  A new framework for water rights may help us decide how to distribute and care for water in a fairer way.  This is going to be a hard change to make with current holders of rights fighting to retain them.  But the reality is that much of our water is oversubscribed already; existing rights can’t be filled anyway. The system can be fixed.

·      IMG_2596Weather management:  We may be looking to weather management to mitigate risks of severe storms brought on by climate change. Chances are we’ll also become even more serious rainmakers than we are now.  Powerful big data analytics are helping us understand the problems inherent in climate change, and those same or similar models should also help us mitigate challenges.  Expect more tools to seed clouds to make more rain, and maybe also ways to calm a hurricane.

The care and management of any kind of garden takes water management.  In a future world where we’ve taking far more responsibility for land use, water management that looks at broad territories will be a foundational skill.   We’ll have to be bold about it.  If we don’t success at managing this fundamental resource, we will fail at many of the things we need to do.  Rivers will dry up, cities and towns will wither away, and many of the ecosystems we are working to preserve will fail. And this is just the freshwater problem….

I’m quite pleased to be back into the business of working on the blog series, and for returning readers thanks for returning after a three month hiatus.  I had some fiction to commit, which will turn into the Edge of Dark, available from Pyr in 2015.

I’ll be delivering a talk about Backing into Eden at the World Future Society in Orlando in July, and with luck, I’ll also have an ebook version available near then. 

As always, here are links to some of the articles I read for research in case you want to do your own exploration:

Links

National Geographic:  Rising Seas

Can water under the Mojave desert help quench California?, Bloomberg Business Week, March 6th 2014, by Peter Waldman.

Huge Aquifer that runs through eight states quickly being tapped out, NBCNews, August 26, 2013, by Denise Chow

The USGS Water Science School

Value of Water Blog: Part 1: People & Water Water Per Capita Use Declines in US, Value of Water Coalition, February 18th, 2014

Natural gas loses to solar energy on costs, a first

Cost of Solar 60% Lower than in early 2011, Cleantechnica, S, Zachary Shahan

Six water purifying designs for the developing world, Inhabit, November 8th, Rebecca Paul

Well, Well.  What the Supreme Court’s new water ruling means for New Mexicans, Santa Fe Reporter, July 30, 2013, by Justin Horwath and Joey Peters

Irrigating the Rio Grande, Albuquerque Journal, July 2nd, 2013, by John Fleck

Hurricane-calming technology:  Bill Gates has a plan, USA Today, July 16th, 2009, by Dan Vergano

 

Jan
27

Three Strikes and We’re Out (of the open Internet)

Someone interviewing me for a magazine asked me what current technology tomorrow’s children would find obsolete.  I almost answered “The Internet.”  Then I decided to think about that answer a little bit because it’s pretty scary.  Then I decided it’s true.

Shortly, humans may find today’s wide open Internet as archaic as we now find phones that are wired to walls.

Here’s why.  There are three huge pressures on the internet as we know it today – the one where I can write this essay, post it on my website, and you can find it and read it.  Whoever you are.

The first strike is today’s news.  We appear to be losing the network neutrality fight, or the idea that all content is treated equally when it comes to transport.  You and I may be paying our internet carriers more to use the best search engines, watch sports games in real time, or download the New York Times every morning.   That’s on top of what we might pay for the content itself.  So we could pony up $4.99 for a video and then get an add-on fee of 19 cents to download it.  Or worse, someone like me who is not famous may pay more money to make my content available to everyone.  Oh, yeah, I do that now.  At least if I want everyone on my friends list to see a post, I have to pay FaceBook.  But I could end up also paying Cox or Time Warner a little extra.  Or it could be if you want to read this post, you’ll have to wait through a one minute download time.  Except you won’t, and I won’t, and only the premium content will be seen by much of anybody.  This is a current fight full of active petitions. We should all be screaming and demanding a win.  Note that while the loss of net neutrality will start by having a deleterious effect on consumers and creators of entertainment content, the next target may very well be the movement of business data.  Want to store your iPhone backup in the Cloud?  Here’s your transport fee.

Strike two is yesterday’s news, still recent enough it occasionally comes up for a sip of media air. The NSA is searching everybody with no warrant.  In fact, the NSA has been so busy opening back doors to the Internet that the front door may be getting locked.  I’ve heard rumors of corporations who are already building or planning  to build private internal networks with no connection whatsoever to the Internet.  They’re reportedly doing this  in order to protect their intellectual property from other corporate and government thieves (can you say China) who are after it.  But now they have to worry about their own government building back doors into servers and not telling anyone at all, especially the American corporations using the compromised hardware and/or software. I suspect that a lot of internal traffic is coming off of the open Internet and going into secondary networks between campuses.  This adds business costs.  A lot of them.  In a related reaction to the NSA and the USA that runs it, we may be seeing Great Firewalls around friendly, democrative countries soon.  At this point, I don’t think it matters what President Obama says to us or to our friends.  Our trust has been breached.  Private networks, face to face meetings, and other more secure tools are going to happen.  Even though I’m a rabid transparency advocate, there’s no part of me that thinks that all private conversations and early-IP should be public, or that the transparency should be a one-way mirror from the NSA into my phone.  So strike two – 1984 in 2014.

Which leads us to strike three; Crime.  Crime isn’t new news at all, but cybercrime appears to be the fastest growing industry on the planet.  No, I haven’t done that research.  But I did determine that my belief that it’s growing fast is widely supported. Most other crime rates are steady or decreasing.  This includes violent crimes, and property crimes.  But cybercrime?  Way up.  I’m in far more danger of suffering from identity theft than I am of being robbed on the street.  And so is almost everyone else.  Likewise, the businesses we work for and the governments who protect us (and spy on us) are also under constant threat.  It’s wearying.  Someday, there may be more peril than promise from doing my shopping online.  Given that I shopped at Target three times right before Christmas, I’m feeling a little like that today.

Cloud technology concept: arrows in Network target on wall backgroundSo we have:

  • A for-profit takeover of internet transport,
  • An NSA spy hiding in the cell phones that live in all of our back pockets; and
  • A gang of thieves, terrorists and organized crime attempting to steal our every transaction

That’s a lot for the Internet to handle.  And if we lose the open Internet, we will have lost something innocent and hopeful.  We will have lost one of the more important tools for equality in the world.  We will have lost a way for all people everywhere to have a voice that can heard by anyone.  Oh, we’ll still have an Internet.  But it might not feel very much like the one we have today.  We may not be willing to use it for anything very interesting at all.  We’ll still get Netflix and Game of Thrones and CNN, but we won’t have it all like we do today.

Jan
06

One Ring to Rule them All: Our phones are failing

Now that I’m up to three wearables from time to time (a Pebble, a Fitbit, and Glass), I’ve become convinced that the “Internet of Things on our Bodies” is hamstrung.  I can’t use the hands-free bluetooth capability to listen to music on my iPhone while wearing Glass and still do anything useful with Glass.  I can’t ask Glass how my fitbit says I’m doing.  Anytime I answer the phone these days, I have to tell it whether I want to take the call on Glass, via the iPhone speakers, via the iPhone itself, or – even though I can’t talk to it – on my Jambox.  Thankfully the fitbit  has no interest in answering a call or I’d be out of small screen room to display all of the choices.  The Pebble is also too dumb to take a call, but the Dick Tracey watch is on its way.

What I want from CES is a phone that acts as the one ring to control all of my wearables.  As it is, the iPhone is optimized to be a computer, not a  remote control.  I don’t want as many remote controls for my body as I have for my television.  So CES, please read Tolkien?glassphoto

Dec
29

Google Glass: 10 Days In (Glass and the Barcodes)

A few people have asked me how it’s going with Glass.  So here’s a  report (and there is a story about barcodes – hang on, it’s at the end).  The pictures are all #throughglass.

Seattle SkylineI did get the turn by turn directions working and used them on a route I knew in a low traffic time.  Less distracting than using the iPhone Google Maps and looking down all of the time,  but I think there may need to a be a mode you can drop Glass into that says “Turn by turn directions and camera only – no other interruptions” to avoid the temptation to look up at Glass very often while driving.  I don’t really want texts or email shoved in my face while I’m driving. So better than a phone, but still with a distraction factor.  The safest map to use in the car is the built in one in the dash, except that it’s wholly out of date after 6 years and updates cost more than a new phone.  So I’m not doing them.  Shouldn’t our cars be as configurable as our phones? But that’s a side-issue….

I FINALLY figured out the send problem (Glass kept saying it had sent things but they never arrived anywhere).  I tried reconfiguring EVERYTHING for HOURS and was about to throw Glass through the window.  I even broke down and sent a note to Google support which didn’t get answered.  So I went back in last night and dutifully searched the Glass support and finally found a thread that was useful.  Apparently when Glass sets up a contact, it defaults to send everything to a Hangout.  WTF?  I didn’t even know you could send things to a hangout.  I’ve only used hangouts a few times (Skype is far more pervasive – it crosses OS ecosystems).  I still have no idea how you get something that was sent to a hangout if you aren’t IN a hangout. Maybe this is the result of being in my fifties and trying new things.  I was reading my friend Stepto’s book, “A Microsoft Life,”  and he talked about a condition he called the “Redmond Reality Distortion Field” where developers live in an artificially techno world and think everyone else does, too.  I suspect Google developers use hangouts like the rest of us use phones or email.  This also reminds me of my first iPod, where it took me hours to figure out how to change the volume.  Maybe I’m just slow.

Night treesSome additional impressions.

1.  For the things Glass is good at (Taking pictures, turn by turn directions, fast replies to simple emails, simple Google searches) it’s awesome.

2.  I remain convinced the big deal is being hands-free.  The possible and useful applications are mind-boggling.

3. There actually aren’t many places in today’s society to wear Glass in company.  It’s more of a separator than a uniter.  Meetings and meals become about Glass, which is just silly.  That may change over time – it’s early and most people I know are seeing Glass for the first time when they see me wearing it.

4.  I still can’t wink with my right eye.

5. Nancy Kress was right.  We need to be able to name our Glass.  Walking around repeating the mantra “Ok Glass” gets pretty stupid sounding after a while.  I  really want to say, “OK Thor,” or “OK Minerva” or even, “OK Dad.”

6.  There is a warning about Lasik that I found buried in the support menus.  I have no idea how seriously to take the warning.  Hasn’t 50% of the population or so had Lasik by now? I have – like a decade a go.  All it says is that the flap on the cornea never heals so Glass is more dangerous for wearers who have had Lasik. How much more dangerous?  Do I have to worry about the dogs pulling me over while walking, about tripping, about daily stuff?  Or just about getting a face full of airbag?  If I wear the clear shades, does that provide adequate protection?  No real information seems to be easily available on the web.

Walking the DogAnd now on to the barcode story….I was driving into work, contemplating whether or not to keep Glass.  It’s cool tech and I like having it, but it utility is pretty low for me other than ego-boost of having it.  There’s some utility, and a lot of fun, but is it more useful than the new computer I would buy with the money if I turn my Glass in?  Remember I work the equivalent of two and a half jobs or so, and thus adding a thing that takes time to troubleshoot and play with is not irrelevant, and spending $1500 to leave something in a drawer is just plain stupid.  And the Lasik warning is a little scary.  Glass is NOT worth losing my vision over. Don’t take this as me not liking Glass – I like it a lot.  But there are reasons for me to question it.  So I go in to get my morning latte at LLadro, and they have a questions of the day up.  “What was the first use of the barcode?”

I have no idea.  I guess inventory, although I’m sure I’m wrong.  But it’s worth a free cup of coffee.  The barrista says, “No.  It was railroad cars.  And you know?  People hated them.  The guy who invented bar codes said they would be all over everything, and no one believed him. I guess that’s how it is with new technology.”

I suspect that’s how it will be with Glass.

Note that I checked the Barrista’s story, and I found that trains did in fact sport the first bar-code like identifiers.

 

Dec
24

Google Glass: Glass goes to work

So just a short update on my Glass experience so far…..

After taking Glass out to a party (see previous post) I felt up to taking Glass in to work for the pre-holiday work days.  I also took it down to a coffee shop for lunch and out to take some pictures.  So here’s some impressions:

bright benchI’m learning where it feels weird to wear Glass and where it feels more natural (and more places will probably feel more natural as time goes on).  Just walking around town outside, I really liked it and felt cool.  This photo is Marina Park with a single sun-brightened bench.

Wearing it in restaurants was a little weird.  Kind of like a “look at me” statement. Mind you, I’m a Leo and a public speaker who loves to be on stage, so don’t get wrong – I like being kind of “look at me” but the reaction Glass gets varies from “Cool!” to “Don’t look at me your moronic alien.”  Of course, many people don’t notice at all or just don’t know what Glass is. Some people clearly believe it’s autonomous. I’ve had to explain to two people now that it’s just a computer and it does what I tell it to, just like my phone.  It’s not recording everything I see all the time.  Really.

In restaurants Glass felt OK in big noisy ones, and not as good in quieter places.  Bathrooms – no.  Even if it’s off – it makes people nervous.  It’s no more dangerous than a phone clutched in my hand, but still….

Things I’ve learned —-

How to accept and place calls – really easy.   The earpiece vibrates strangely when people talk to me and feels a little distracting. Katie (the household seventeen year old)  said my voice is clearer through Glass than on the iPhone Speaker.

I did learn how to tether it to the iPhone.  Still thinking maybe I should have gone to Android and a second phone.  My iPhone is now data central for Glass, for the Pebble, and for the Fitbit (my three wearables) and I can’t sync more devices well –  like my blue tooth speakers or wireless headset.  Maybe I still need to learn to do it.  It feels like having only one remote-control when you need two.

The setup for Wink was annoying me since I can’t manage to wink (I keep walking around practicing winking with my right eye, but I’m not doing it well enough to calibrate Glass yet and I look rather funny trying).  Solution?  Katie can wink.  She put Glass on and calibrated Wink to her, so I still can’t use Wink, but Glass has stopped insisting that I try to set Wink up.  This is a large relief.

Anixie through glassfter five days, I’m much more facile with moving around Glass, although I still do unexpected things once in a while like accidentally delete a picture or take one, or send something to the wrong person, although that doesn’t matter yet. I can’t get Glass to actually send anything.  I have contacts set up, and Glass thinks it’s sending things but it’s not.  Or at least no one I know is receiving anything.  Almost surely a mis-configuration on my side.

The battery is getting better.

Things I want?  For Glass to sync with my fitbit and tell me how many steps I’ve takes so far today.  To be able to tell it to “stop” when it wants something you don’t want/can’t do like the Wink setup.

Well, off to spike the  ham with cloves.  Merry holidays to all!

Dec
22

Google Glass: Glass goes to a party

Took Google Glass out to Patrick Swenson’s birthday/holiday party.  Here is a brief summary:

It didn’t feel as weird to be wearing Glass as I thought it would.  A number of people were interested in seeing Glass, which makes sense since it was a room full of science fiction writers and tech geeks.  I did not leave it on all of the time. It is comfortable to wear for an hour at a time (I didn’t try longer).

I was the only one with Glass there – not surprising since I haven’t seen it in the wild in Seattle much.

Almost everyone wanted/expected Glass to do more than I could make it do without better connectivity. I MUST tether – buy an Android or give up my unlimited data plan.  It might actually be cheaper to add an Android phone (to tether I apparently need to buy the most expensive data plan AND add tethering, which adds $35 a month to the phone bill).  Two phones would solve another problem — I like to walk with my wireless headphones and listen to podcasts or books or music.  I also want to walk with Glass.  But I can’t synch two handsfree devices to one phone (duh!).  It turns out this is why I couldn’t pair Glass to the iPhone for two days – my wireless headphone set is always paired.  No way I can switch from the wireless headphones  to Glass with Glass’s battery life.  Glass made it through three hours of party.  I am already “girl with two pairs of glasses” and I’m not certain I want to be “girl with two phones.”  But if I take my headphones and Glass for a walk, Glass will be a brick unless I have ubiquitous wireless. Or unless when I tether it I don’t also need bluetooth.  Need to explore that.   I suspect ubiquitous wireless is a pre-requisite for wide-spread and easy wearable computing.  I knew that, but this Explorer experience is an underline.

Nancy and Ken and ChristyAll I know how to do so far to take a picture is to go through the verbal commands, which in a crowded room means loudly saying “OK Glass.  Take a Picture.”  Kind of distracting, and not very social.  I will have to learn the other ways to do it.  Currently practicing my right-eye wink and still failing.  I also can’t get Glass to stop insisting I try to make wink work, which is a distraction.

I did manage to get a couple of pictures (poor ones) and a decent video of Ken Scholes and Nancy Kress doing music, but the video turns out to be an animated GIF and appears not to play in WordPress or on FB.  So I haven’t posted it anywhere.  Note to self:  taking a really good video of a subject that’s sitting down requires not moving one’s head!  This is an inside bad-light Glass photo of Ken and Nancy (and Christy – which I might have spelled wrong).  The video-as-x-seconds of animated Gif is too distracting to post.

Funniest comment?  Nancy Kress thought I should name it something different than “OK Glass.”  Not a bad idea to have a configurable trigger phrase that would allow us to personalize Glass.

About

I am a writer, public speaker, and a futurist. I’m interested in how new technologies might change us and our world, particularly for the better.

I’m excited about my most recent book series, a duology called “Ruby’s Song” which includes the books The Creative Fire and The Diamond Deep, both published by Pyr.  I’m also doing a non-fiction blog series, Backing into Eden, which comes out roughly twice a month and explores ways to care for the world, now and in the future.

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